Poker Strategies
|
|
The fundamental theorem of poker, introduced by
David Sklansky, states that every time you play
your hand the way you would if you could see
your opponent's cards, you gain, and every time
your opponent plays his cards differently from
the way he would play them if he could see your
cards, you gain. This theorem is the
foundation for many poker strategy topics. For
example, bluffing and slow-playing (explained
below) are examples of using deception to induce
your opponents to play differently than they
would if they could see your cards. There are
some exceptions to the fundamental theorem in
certain multi-way pot situations, as described
in Morton's theorem.
Pot odds, implied odds and poker
probabilities
The relationship between pot odds and odds of
winning is one of the most important concepts in
poker strategy. Pot odds are the ratio of the
size of the pot to the size of the bet required
to stay in the pot.[1] For example, if a player
must call $10 for a chance to win a $40 pot (not
including his $10 call), his pot odds are
4-to-1. To have a positive expectation, a
player's odds of winning must be better than his
pot odds. If the player's odds of winning are
also 4-to-1 (20% chance of winning), and if he
plays the pot five times, his expected return is
to break even (losing four times and winning
once).
Implied odds is a more complicated concept,
though related to pot odds. The implied odds on
a hand are based not on the money currently in
the pot, but on the expected size of the pot at
the end of the hand. When facing an even money
situation (like described in the previous
paragraph) and holding a strong drawing hand
(say a four-flush) a skilled player will
consider calling a bet or even opening based on
their implied odds. This is particularly true in
multi-way pots, where it is likely that one or
more opponents will call all the way to
showdown.
Deception - Bluff and Slow play
By employing deception, a poker player hopes to
induce his opponent(s) to act differently than
they would if they could see his cards. Bluffing
is a form of deception to induce opponents to
fold superior hands. If opponents observe that a
player never bluffs, they won't call his bets
unless they have very good hands. Slow-playing
is deceptive play in poker that is roughly the
opposite of bluffing: betting weakly with a
strong holding rather than betting strongly with
a weak one. If opponents observe that a player
never slow plays, they can pounce at any sign of
weakness.
Position
Position refers to the order in which players
are seated around the table and the strategic
consequences of this. Generally, players in
earlier position (who have to act first) need
stronger hands to bet or raise than players in
later position. For example, if there are five
opponents yet to act behind a player, there is a
greater chance one of the opponents will have a
better hand than if there were only one opponent
yet to act. Being in late position is an
advantage because a player gets to see how his
opponents in earlier position act (which
provides the player more information about their
hands than they have about his). Position is one
of the most vital elements to understand in
order to be a long-term winning player. As a
player's position improves, so too does the
range of cards with which he can profitably
enter a hand. Conversely this commonly held
knowledge can be used to an intelligent poker
player's advantage. If playing against observant
opponents in tournament style play (when the
amount of chips one has is finite, which is to
say there are no 'rebuys') then a raise with any
two cards can 'steal the blinds,' if executed
against passive players at a fortuitous time.
Reasons to raise
Unlike calling, raising has an extra way to win:
opponents may fold. An opening bet may be
considered a raise from a strategy perspective.
David Sklansky gives seven reasons for raising,
summarized below.
-
To get more money in the pot when a player has
the best hand: If a player has the best hand,
raising for value enables him to win a bigger
pot.
-
To drive out opponents when a player has the
best hand: If a player has a made hand, raising
may protect his hand by driving out opponents
with drawing hands who may otherwise improve to
a better hand.
-
To bluff or semi-bluff: If a player raises with
an inferior or drawing hand, the player may
induce a better hand to fold. In the case of
semi-bluff, if the player is called, he still
has a chance to improve to a better hand (and
also win a larger pot).
-
To get a free card: If a player raises with a
drawing hand, his opponent may check to him on
the next betting round, giving him a chance to
get a free card to improve his hand.
-
To gain information: If a player raises with an
uncertain hand, he gains information about the
strength of his opponent's hand if he is called.
Players may use an opening bet on a later
betting round (probe or continuation bets) to
gain information by being called or raised (or
may win the pot immediately).
-
To drive out worse hands when a player's own
hand may be second best: Sometimes, if a player
raises with the second best hand with cards to
come, raising to drive out opponents with worse
hands (but who might improve) may increase the
expected value of his hand by giving him a
higher probability of winning in the event his
hand improves.
-
To drive out better hands when a come hand bets:
If an opponent with an apparent come hand
(drawing hand) bets before a player, if the
player raises, opponents behind him who may have
a better hand may fold rather than call a bet
and raise. This is a form of isolation play.
Reasons to call
There are several reasons for calling a bet or
raise, summarized below.
-
To see more cards: With a drawing hand, a player
may be receiving the correct pot odds with the
call to see more cards.
-
To limit loss in equity: Calling may be
appropriate when a player has adequate pot odds
to call but will lose equity on money
contributed to the pot.
-
To avoid a re-raise: Only calling (and not
raising) denies the original bettor the option
of re-raising.
-
To conceal the strength of a player's hand: If a
player has a very strong hand, he might smooth
call on an early betting round to avoid giving
away the strength of his hand on the hope of
getting more money into the pot in later betting
rounds.
-
To manipulate pot odds: By calling (not
raising), a player offers any opponents yet to
act behind him more favorable pot odds to also
call. For example, if a player has a very strong
hand, a smooth call may encourage opponents
behind him to overcall, building the pot.
Particularly in limit games, building the pot in
an earlier betting round may induce opponents to
call future bets in later betting rounds because
of the pot odds they will be receiving.
-
To set up a bluff on a later betting round:
Sometimes referred to as a long-ball bluff,
calling on an earlier betting round can set up a
bluff (or semi-bluff) on a later betting
round.
Gap concept
The gap concept states that a player needs a
better hand to play against someone who has
already opened (or raised) the betting than he
would need to open himself. The gap concept
reflects that players prefer to avoid
confrontations with another player who has
already indicated strength, and that calling
only has one way to win (by having the best
hand), whereas opening may also win immediately
if your opponent(s) fold.
Sandwich effect
Related to the gap effect, the sandwich effect
states that a player needs a stronger hand to
stay in a pot when there are opponents yet to
act behind him. Because the player doesn't
know how many opponents will be involved in the
pot or whether he will have to call a re-raise,
he doesn't know what his effective pot odds
actually are. Therefore, a stronger hand is
desired as compensation for this uncertainty.
Loose/tight play
Loose players play relatively more hands and
tend to continue with weaker hands. Tight
players play relatively fewer hands and tend not
to continue with weaker hands. The following
concepts are applicable in loose games (and
their inverse in tight games):
-
Bluffs and semi-bluffs are less effective
because loose opponents are less likely to fold.
Requirements for continuing with made hands may
be lower because loose players may also be
playing lower value hands.
-
Drawing to incomplete hands, like flushes, tends
to be more valuable as draws will often get
favorable pot odds and a stronger hand (rather
than merely one pair) is often required to win
in multi-way pots.
Aggressive/passive play
Aggressive play refers to betting and raising.
Passive play refers to checking and calling.
Unless passive play is being used deceptively as
mentioned above, aggressive play is generally
considered stronger than passive play because of
the bluff value of bets and raises and because
it offers more opportunities for your opponents
to make mistakes.
Hand reading and tells
Hand reading is the process of making educated
guesses about the possible cards an opponent may
hold based on the sequence of actions in the
pot. The term 'hand reading' is actually a
misnomer due to the fact that a professional
poker player does not attempt to put a player on
an exact hand. Rather he attempts to narrow the
possibilities down to a range of hands which
makes sense based on the past actions of his
opponent. A tell is a detectable change in an
opponent's behavior or demeanor that gives clues
about his hand. Educated guesses about an
opponent's cards can help a player avoid
mistakes in his own play, induce mistakes by his
opponent(s), or influence the player to take
actions that he would normally not take under
the circumstances. For example, a tell might
suggest an opponent has missed a draw, so a
player seeing it may decide a bluff would be
more effective than usual.
Table image and opponent profiling
By observing the tendencies and patterns of
one's opponents, one can make more educated
guesses about others' potential holdings. For
example, if a player has been playing extremely
tightly (playing very few hands), when she
finally does enter a pot, one may surmise that
she has stronger than average cards. One's table
image is the perception of one's opponents of
one's own pattern of play. One can leverage
one's table image by playing out of character
and thereby inducing one's opponents to misjudge
one's hand and make a mistake.
Equity
A player's equity in a pot is his expected share
of the pot, expressed either as a percentage
(probability of winning) or expected value
(amount of pot * probability of winning).
Negative equity, or loss in equity, occurs when
contributing to a pot with a probability of
winning less than 1 / (number of opponents
matching the contribution).
Example :
Alice contributes $12 to a pot and is matched by
two other opponents. Alice's $12 contribution
"bought" the chance to win $36. If Alice's
probability of winning is 50%, her equity in the
$36 pot is $18 (a gain in equity because her $12
is now "worth" $18). If her probability of
winning is only 10%, Alice loses equity because
her $12 is now only "worth" $3.60.
If there is already money in the pot, the pot
odds associated with a particular play may
indicate a positive expected value even though
it may have negative equity.
Texas hold'em example :
Alice holds J7♠. Bob holds K♥6♠. After the
flop, the board is 5♥6♥8. If both hands are
played to a showdown, Alice has a 45% chance to
win, Bob has a 53% chance to win and there is a
2% chance to split the pot. The pot currently
has $51. Alice goes all-in for $45 and is
certain that Bob will call. Alice's implied pot
odds for the all-in bet are 32%. Bob's simple
pot odds for the call are also 32%. Since both
have a probability of winning greater than 32%,
both plays (the raise and the call) have a
positive expectation. However, since Bob has
more equity in the pot than Alice (53% vs. 45%),
Alice would have been better off playing the pot
as cheaply as possible. When Alice went all-in,
she gave up the difference in equity on the
money she contributed to the pot.
Also see fold equity.
Short-handed considerations
When playing short-handed (at a table with fewer
than normal players), players must loosen up
their play (play more hands) for several
reasons:
There is less likelihood of another player
having a strong hand because there are fewer
players.
Each player's share of the forced bets increases
because there are fewer players contributing to
the forced bets, thus waiting for premium hands
becomes more expensive.
This type of situation comes up most often in
tournament style play. In a cash game, the
adjustments are very similar, but not quite as
drastic as the table can ask for what is known
as a 'rake break.' A rake break occurs when the
floor-man, who represents the casino, agrees to
take a smaller portion than usual for the hand.
For example a random casino might normally
receive 10% of the pot up to 5 dollars for a
'rake.' In this case the table would only owe
10% up to 3 dollars until there are a sufficient
number of players again.
Structure considerations
The blinds and antes and limit structure of the
game have a significant influence on poker
strategy. For example, it is easier to
manipulate pot odds in no-limit and pot-limit
games than in limit games. In tournaments, as
the size of the forced bets relative to the chip
stacks grows, pressure is placed on players to
play pots to avoid being anted/blinded away.
|
|
|
|
